First-quarter global refinery runs are estimated at 79.3 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d higher than in the first quarter of 2015, in line with global demand growth. The forecast for the second quarter throughput is at 79.7 mb/d, up only 0.8 mb/d year-on-year, slower than the forecast 1.1 mb/d demand growth. All of the net growth in the first half of 2016 comes from non-OECD refiners.
Commercial stocks in the OECD built counter-seasonally by 7.3 mb in February to end the month at 3 060 mb. Accordingly, the overhang of inventories against average levels widened to 387 mb at end-month. Preliminary information for March suggests OECD holdings rose further while volumes of crude held in floating storage increased.